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Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers · #23 · Starter
SF6'5"215 lbage 266 yrs expVanderbiltCharleston, SC
6th best of 15 on INDworth +1.5 wins to the rotation
OFF68DEF66
High-level shooter & rim protector
IND
Indiana Pacers
Eastern · Central · proj. 52-30 (▲+0.1)
→

A 3-and-D wing built for the Pacers' system, knocking down 37.9% from deep on a 73rd-percentile shooting volume and 82.9% at the line across 45 games. His on-paper perimeter defense numbers dipped this season, and he doesn't create off the bounce, but the catch-and-shoot stroke and motor make him a clean fit at $11M.

13.8
PPG
4.2
RPG
1.9
APG
0.6
SPG
0.5
BPG
GP 45MPG 29.7FG% 41.43P% 37.9FT% 82.9TS% 55.4USG% 19.8PER 10.8BPM -3.4VORP -0.5EPM +1.4
2025-26 regular season · bars are percentile at his position

NBA player ratings

0–99 · 2025-26 form
Shooting87
Rim protection75
Scoring71
Playmaking64
Rebounding58
Perimeter defense53
Inside finishing52

Skill ratings are 2025-26 per-game and advanced stats (Basketball-Reference) ranked 0–99 within position (guards vs guards, bigs vs bigs). Overall is anchored to EPM impact on a non-linear curve, nudged by these skills; Offense and Defense come from box plus-minus. A player who missed the latest season is shown from his most recent one.

Career

2020-21 to 2025-26 · 6 seasons
9.6
PPG
3.4
RPG
1.2
APG
333
GAMES
Points 3,191Win Shares 11.2Starts 190Best season 2023-24 · 12.2 ppg
Games played, last three seasons66%

Regular season, 2003-04 onward (Basketball-Reference). Averages are weighted by games played; honours count awards won, not finishes. “Current players” means the 802 who played in the last three seasons.

Trajectory

2023-24 → 2025-26 · age 24 → 26
▼Declining

Aaron, at 26, is trending downward — 2.7 → 0.2 wins of value over the window.

Age curve▼ Behind curve
Developing slower than his age would suggest.
2026-27 forecast▲ 5.0 wins (+4.8)
Assumes a normal season; he played 45 games last year. Range 4.0–6.1 wins.
Production (BPM)-0.5 → -3.4-2.926-27 forecast -1.8
His on-court production has slipped.
2023-24: -0.5 · 72 games2024-25: -0.5 · 45 games2025-26: -3.4 · 45 games2026-27: -1.8 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Value to team (wins)2.7 → 0.2-2.426-27 forecast 5.0
His win contribution is trending down.
2023-24: 2.7 · 72 games2024-25: 1.9 · 45 games2025-26: 0.2 · 45 games2026-27: 5.0 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Contract value2026-27: worth $17.0M vs $11.0M salary+$6.0M
His play is projected to be worth more than he is paid.
$11.0M salary2023-24: $5.9M · 72 games2024-25: $4.4M · 45 games2025-26: $1.8M · 45 games2026-27: $17.0M (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Current deal: $11,000,000 cap hit · through '29. On the contract row the flat dashed line is this salary, so the gap to the 2026-27 forecast is the surplus.

Seasons from Basketball-Reference (2023-24 → 2025-26). Production is box plus-minus, a per-possession measure. Value is VORP-based wins, so it also counts games played. Contract value is what each season’s play would fetch on the open market. The dotted 2026-27 point is a forecast: his established level, a year older, assuming a normal season.

Contract

2026-27
$11,000,000Guaranteed
5% of the club’s payroll · 6th of 13 priced deals
Runs through3 seasons
Est. market value$17,036,000 /yr
Surplus+$6,036,000
BARGAINworth more than he is paid

Market value is an estimate, not a reported figure: what his play is forecast to fetch on the open market in 2026-27 — his current rating, a year older. Cap thresholds are projected for 2026-27 until the league sets them.

Plays like

same position

Nearest skill profiles across the seven rating axes — who he plays like, not who is as good. The rating beside each name answers that second question.