🏀Front Office2026-27
 
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks · #7 · Starter
SG6'5"205 lbage 277 yrs expVirginia TechToronto, ON
4th best of 15 on ATLworth +1.6 wins to the rotation
OFF81DEF73
Elite shooter & scorer
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
Eastern · Southeast · proj. 41-41 (▲+1.7)
→
Most Improved Player

The Hawks' biggest surprise — a Most Improved Player runner-up who broke out as a knockdown movement shooter and tough on-ball defender. He poured in 20.8 a night on a sparkling 61% true shooting, 39.9% from deep and 90% at the line, with elite (93rd-percentile) shooting and high-end scoring volume. He defends both guard spots and takes care of the ball; a perfect modern wing on a bargain contract.

20.8
PPG
3.4
RPG
3.7
APG
1.3
SPG
0.5
BPG
GP 78MPG 33.4FG% 45.93P% 39.9FT% 90.2TS% 61USG% 23.9PER 16.5BPM +1.2VORP 2.1EPM +1.0
2025-26 regular season · bars are percentile at his position

NBA player ratings

0–99 · 2025-26 form
Shooting94
Scoring93
Rim protection90
Inside finishing78
Perimeter defense77
Playmaking67
Rebounding60

Skill ratings are 2025-26 per-game and advanced stats (Basketball-Reference) ranked 0–99 within position (guards vs guards, bigs vs bigs). Overall is anchored to EPM impact on a non-linear curve, nudged by these skills; Offense and Defense come from box plus-minus. A player who missed the latest season is shown from his most recent one.

Career

2019-20 to 2025-26 · 7 seasons
10.6
PPG
2.6
RPG
2.5
APG
459
GAMES
Points 4,882Win Shares 16.5Starts 139Best season 2025-26 · 20.8 ppg
Games played, last three seasons98%

Regular season, 2003-04 onward (Basketball-Reference). Averages are weighted by games played; honours count awards won, not finishes. “Current players” means the 802 who played in the last three seasons.

Trajectory

2023-24 → 2025-26 · age 25 → 27
▲Rising

Nickeil, at 27, is on a clear upward trajectory — 3.2 → 5.1 wins of value over the window.

Age curve▬ On curve
Developing about on schedule for his age.
2026-27 forecast▼ 4.4 wins (-0.7)
At 28, expect about the same level. Range 2.7–6.1 wins.
Production (BPM)+0.2 → +1.2+1.026-27 forecast +0.6
His production has held roughly steady.
2023-24: +0.2 · 82 games2024-25: -0.4 · 82 games2025-26: +1.2 · 78 games2026-27: +0.6 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Value to team (wins)3.2 → 5.1+1.926-27 forecast 4.4
He's worth more wins to a team than he was.
2023-24: 3.2 · 82 games2024-25: 2.7 · 82 games2025-26: 5.1 · 78 games2026-27: 4.4 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Contract value2026-27: worth $12.1M vs $14.4M salary−$2.3M
He is paid about what his play is projected to be worth.
$14.4M salary2023-24: $7.4M · 82 games2024-25: $5.9M · 82 games2025-26: $17.5M · 78 games2026-27: $12.1M (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Current deal: $14,403,710 cap hit · through '29. On the contract row the flat dashed line is this salary, so the gap to the 2026-27 forecast is the surplus.

Seasons from Basketball-Reference (2023-24 → 2025-26). Production is box plus-minus, a per-possession measure. Value is VORP-based wins, so it also counts games played. Contract value is what each season’s play would fetch on the open market. The dotted 2026-27 point is a forecast: his established level, a year older, assuming a normal season.

Contract

2026-27
$14,403,710Guaranteed
8% of the club’s payroll · 6th of 15 priced deals
Runs through3 seasons
Est. market value$12,060,000 /yr
Surplus−$2,343,710
FAIR VALUEpaid about what he is worth

Market value is an estimate, not a reported figure: what his play is forecast to fetch on the open market in 2026-27 — his current rating, a year older. Cap thresholds are projected for 2026-27 until the league sets them.

Plays like

same position

Nearest skill profiles across the seven rating axes — who he plays like, not who is as good. The rating beside each name answers that second question.