🏀Front Office2026-27
 
Miami Heat
72
OVR

Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · #9 · Rotation
SG6'5"215 lbage 252 yrs expArizonaNacka, Sweden
9th best of 12 on MIA
OFF72DEF73
Elite interior finisher & scorer
MIA
Miami Heat
Eastern · Southeast · proj. 54-28 (▲+14.6)

A heady Swedish guard who carved out real rotation minutes (26.4 a night) as a secondary playmaker and a relentless foul-drawer — a 90th-percentile mark at getting to the line. He finishes well inside (49.6% from the field) and moves the ball, but the outside shot (32.3% from three) and defense are still developing. A smart, low-cost role player on the rise.

11.4
PPG
3.5
RPG
3.4
APG
0.7
SPG
0.2
BPG
GP 70MPG 26.4FG% 49.63P% 32.3FT% 79.7TS% 60.5USG% 16.8PER 13.1BPM -1.2VORP 0.4
2025-26 regular season · bars are percentile at his position

NBA player ratings

0–99 · 2025-26 form
Inside finishing94
Scoring82
Playmaking76
Rebounding74
Rim protection71
Perimeter defense69
Shooting67

Skill ratings are 2025-26 per-game and advanced stats (Basketball-Reference) ranked 0–99 within position (guards vs guards, bigs vs bigs). Overall is anchored to EPM impact on a non-linear curve, nudged by these skills; Offense and Defense come from box plus-minus. A player who missed the latest season is shown from his most recent one.

Career

2024-25 to 2025-26 · 2 seasons
8.4
PPG
2.7
RPG
2.4
APG
125
GAMES
Points 1,051Win Shares 5.5Starts 62Best season 2025-26 · 11.4 ppg

Regular season, 2003-04 onward (Basketball-Reference). Averages are weighted by games played; honours count awards won, not finishes. “Current players” means the 802 who played in the last three seasons.

Trajectory

2024-25 → 2025-26 · age 23 → 24
Rising

Pelle, at 24, is on a clear upward trajectory — 0.8 → 1.9 wins of value over the window.

Age curve Ahead of curve
Developing faster than a typical player his age.
2026-27 forecast 2.3 wins (+0.4)
Age should add a little at 25. Range 1.53.1 wins.
Production (BPM)-3.1-1.2+1.926-27 forecast -1.3
His per-possession game has clearly sharpened.
2024-25: -3.1 · 55 games2025-26: -1.2 · 70 games2026-27: -1.3 (forecast)24-2525-2626-27
Value to team (wins)0.81.9+1.126-27 forecast 2.3
He's worth more wins to a team than he was.
2024-25: 0.8 · 55 games2025-26: 1.9 · 70 games2026-27: 2.3 (forecast)24-2525-2626-27
Contract value2026-27: worth $5.1M vs $2.3M salary+$2.8M
He is paid about what his play is projected to be worth.
$2.3M salary2024-25: $2.5M · 55 games2025-26: $4.4M · 70 games2026-27: $5.1M (forecast)24-2525-2626-27
Current deal: $2,296,271 cap hit · through '27. On the contract row the flat dashed line is this salary, so the gap to the 2026-27 forecast is the surplus.

Seasons from Basketball-Reference (2024-25 → 2025-26). Production is box plus-minus, a per-possession measure. Value is VORP-based wins, so it also counts games played. Contract value is what each season’s play would fetch on the open market. The dotted 2026-27 point is a forecast: his established level, a year older, assuming a normal season.

Contract

2026-27
$2,296,271Team option
1% of the club’s payroll · 10th of 12 priced deals
Runs through1 season
Est. market value$5,107,790 /yr
Surplus+$2,811,519
FAIR VALUEpaid about what he is worth

Market value is an estimate, not a reported figure: what his play is forecast to fetch on the open market in 2026-27 — his current rating, a year older. Cap thresholds are projected for 2026-27 until the league sets them.

Plays like

same position

Nearest skill profiles across the seven rating axes — who he plays like, not who is as good. The rating beside each name answers that second question.