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Marvin Bagley III

Denver Nuggets · #35 · Rotation
PF6'10"235 lbage 278 yrs expDukePhoenix, AZ
8th best of 15 on DENworth +0.9 wins to the rotation
OFF80DEF74
Elite rebounder & interior finisher
DEN
Denver Nuggets
Western · Northwest · proj. 56-26 (▲+2.8)
→

A former No. 2 pick reinvented as an efficient, energy big off the bench, splitting 2025-26 across two teams. He finished everything inside (90th-percentile, 61.8% from the field, 66.1% true shooting), crashed the glass hard (91st-percentile, 6.1 boards in 20 minutes) and protected the rim — the defensive consistency and outside shot still lag, but he's a productive backup five on a minimum-money market.

10.5
PPG
6.1
RPG
1.4
APG
0.5
SPG
0.7
BPG
GP 60MPG 20FG% 61.83P% 46.2FT% 66TS% 66.1USG% 18.6PER 20.2BPM +0.8VORP 0.8
2025-26 regular season · bars are percentile at his position

NBA player ratings

0–99 · 2025-26 form
Rebounding98
Inside finishing96
Rim protection95
Scoring86
Playmaking68
Perimeter defense61
Shooting55

Skill ratings are 2025-26 per-game and advanced stats (Basketball-Reference) ranked 0–99 within position (guards vs guards, bigs vs bigs). Overall is anchored to EPM impact on a non-linear curve, nudged by these skills; Offense and Defense come from box plus-minus. A player who missed the latest season is shown from his most recent one.

Career

2018-19 to 2025-26 · 8 seasons
11.8
PPG
6.5
RPG
1.0
APG
349
GAMES
Points 4,106Win Shares 16.3Starts 141Best season 2025-26 · 10.5 ppg
Games played, last three seasons57%

Regular season, 2003-04 onward (Basketball-Reference). Averages are weighted by games played; honours count awards won, not finishes. “Current players” means the 802 who played in the last three seasons.

Trajectory

2023-24 → 2025-26 · age 24 → 26
▲Rising

Marvin, at 26, is on a clear upward trajectory — -0.4 → +0.8 box plus-minus over the window.

Age curve▬ On curve
Developing about on schedule for his age.
2026-27 forecast▲ 3.6 wins (+1.0)
At 27, expect about the same level. Range 2.3–5.0 wins.
Production (BPM)-0.4 → +0.8+1.226-27 forecast +0.4
His per-possession game has clearly sharpened.
2023-24: -0.4 · 50 games2024-25: -1.2 · 31 games2025-26: +0.8 · 60 games2026-27: +0.4 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Value to team (wins)1.9 → 2.7+0.726-27 forecast 3.6
His value to a team has been stable.
2023-24: 1.9 · 50 games2024-25: 1.4 · 31 games2025-26: 2.7 · 60 games2026-27: 3.6 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Contract value2026-27: worth $8.7M
Unsigned, so there is no 2026-27 salary to measure against. This is roughly what his play would fetch on the open market.
2023-24: $4.4M · 50 games2024-25: $3.4M · 31 games2025-26: $5.9M · 60 games2026-27: $8.7M (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Current deal: through '27. On the contract row the flat dashed line is this salary, so the gap to the 2026-27 forecast is the surplus.

Seasons from Basketball-Reference (2023-24 → 2025-26). Production is box plus-minus, a per-possession measure. Value is VORP-based wins, so it also counts games played. Contract value is what each season’s play would fetch on the open market. The dotted 2026-27 point is a forecast: his established level, a year older, assuming a normal season.

Contract

2026-27
—Signed · terms pending
Runs through1 season
Est. market value$8,716,000 /yr
Surplus+$8,716,000
BARGAINworth more than he is paid

Market value is an estimate, not a reported figure: what his play is forecast to fetch on the open market in 2026-27 — his current rating, a year older. Cap thresholds are projected for 2026-27 until the league sets them.

2026-27 off-season

1 move

OFFICIAL means the league’s own records carry the move; AGREED means a trusted insider reported it and the league has not processed it yet. Terms and attribution come from the wire, which is the only source that carries them.

Plays like

same position

Nearest skill profiles across the seven rating axes — who he plays like, not who is as good. The rating beside each name answers that second question.