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OVR

Nikola Jović

Miami Heat · #5 · Rotation
PF6'10"240 lbage 234 yrs exp
5th best of 12 on MIAworth +0.9 wins to the rotation
OFF61DEF75
Capable rim protector & playmaker
MIA
Miami Heat
Eastern · Southeast · proj. 54-28 (▲+14.6)
→

A skilled, big-bodied forward and a long-term Heat bet — locked in through 2030 at 23 — but last season was a step back, with the shot deserting him (26.9% from three, 36.6% from the field) across an injury-shortened 47 games. The passing flashes and frame are intriguing, yet the efficiency (48% true shooting, negative BPM) tells you he's still very much a work in progress.

7.3
PPG
3.3
RPG
2.2
APG
0.6
SPG
0.4
BPG
GP 47MPG 17.2FG% 36.63P% 26.9FT% 68.3TS% 48USG% 21.4PER 9.5BPM -3.5VORP -0.3EPM +0.4
2025-26 regular season · bars are percentile at his position

NBA player ratings

0–99 · 2025-26 form
Rim protection82
Playmaking78
Rebounding74
Perimeter defense74
Shooting57
Scoring56
Inside finishing54

Skill ratings are 2025-26 per-game and advanced stats (Basketball-Reference) ranked 0–99 within position (guards vs guards, bigs vs bigs). Overall is anchored to EPM impact on a non-linear curve, nudged by these skills; Offense and Defense come from box plus-minus. A player who missed the latest season is shown from his most recent one.

Career

2022-23 to 2025-26 · 4 seasons
8.3
PPG
3.6
RPG
2.2
APG
154
GAMES
Points 1,272Win Shares 4.7Starts 57Best season 2024-25 · 10.7 ppg
Games played, last three seasons56%

Regular season, 2003-04 onward (Basketball-Reference). Averages are weighted by games played; honours count awards won, not finishes. “Current players” means the 802 who played in the last three seasons.

Trajectory

2023-24 → 2025-26 · age 20 → 22
▼Declining

Nikola, at 22, is trending downward — 2.1 → 0.6 wins of value over the window.

Age curve▼ Behind curve
Developing slower than his age would suggest.
2026-27 forecast▲ 4.2 wins (+3.6)
Starts from his player rating, which is higher than last season's total. Age should add a little at 23. Range 2.7–5.7 wins.
Production (BPM)+0.3 → -3.5-3.826-27 forecast -0.9
His on-court production has slipped.
2023-24: +0.3 · 46 games2024-25: +0.3 · 46 games2025-26: -3.5 · 47 games2026-27: -0.9 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Value to team (wins)2.1 → 0.6-1.526-27 forecast 4.2
His win contribution is trending down.
2023-24: 2.1 · 46 games2024-25: 2.5 · 46 games2025-26: 0.6 · 47 games2026-27: 4.2 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Contract value2026-27: worth $11.2M vs $16.2M salary−$5.0M
He is paid more than his play is projected to be worth.
$16.2M salary2023-24: $4.7M · 46 games2024-25: $5.4M · 46 games2025-26: $2.3M · 47 games2026-27: $11.2M (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Current deal: $16,200,000 cap hit · through '30. On the contract row the flat dashed line is this salary, so the gap to the 2026-27 forecast is the surplus.

Seasons from Basketball-Reference (2023-24 → 2025-26). Production is box plus-minus, a per-possession measure. Value is VORP-based wins, so it also counts games played. Contract value is what each season’s play would fetch on the open market. The dotted 2026-27 point is a forecast: his established level, a year older, assuming a normal season.

Contract

2026-27
$16,200,000Guaranteed
8% of the club’s payroll · 4th of 12 priced deals
Runs through4 seasons
Est. market value$11,224,000 /yr
Surplus−$4,976,000
ABOVE VALUEpaid above his on-court value

Market value is an estimate, not a reported figure: what his play is forecast to fetch on the open market in 2026-27 — his current rating, a year older. Cap thresholds are projected for 2026-27 until the league sets them.

Plays like

same position

Nearest skill profiles across the seven rating axes — who he plays like, not who is as good. The rating beside each name answers that second question.