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Keegan Murray

Sacramento Kings · #13 · Starter
PF6'8"225 lbage 254 yrs expIowaCedar Rapids, IA
2nd best of 14 on SACworth +3.7 wins to the rotation
OFF72DEF73
High-level rim protector & interior finisher
SAC
Sacramento Kings
Western · Pacific · proj. 33-49 (▲+0.6)
→

A long, low-maintenance 3-and-D forward locked into a long-term deal through 2031 — the kind of two-way wing every contender covets. Injuries cut into his 2025-26 sample enough that there's no clean season to grade here, but at 25 with a smooth catch-and-shoot stroke and real defensive size, he projects as a quality starter.

12.4
PPG
6.7
RPG
1.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.9
BPG
GP 76MPG 34.3FG% 44.43P% 34.3FT% 83.3TS% 55.3USG% 15PER 12BPM -1.6VORP 0.2EPM +1.2
2024-25 regular season · bars are percentile at his position

NBA player ratings

0–99 · 2024-25 form
Rim protection89
Inside finishing82
Rebounding81
Shooting80
Scoring73
Playmaking65
Perimeter defense62

Skill ratings are 2024-25 per-game and advanced stats (Basketball-Reference) ranked 0–99 within position (guards vs guards, bigs vs bigs). Overall is anchored to EPM impact on a non-linear curve, nudged by these skills; Offense and Defense come from box plus-minus. A player who missed the latest season is shown from his most recent one.

Career

2022-23 to 2025-26 · 4 seasons
13.3
PPG
5.6
RPG
1.5
APG
256
GAMES
Points 3,411Win Shares 14.1Starts 253Best season 2023-24 · 15.2 ppg
Games played, last three seasons72%

Regular season, 2003-04 onward (Basketball-Reference). Averages are weighted by games played; honours count awards won, not finishes. “Current players” means the 802 who played in the last three seasons.

Trajectory

2023-24 → 2025-26 · age 23 → 25
▼Declining

Keegan, at 25, is trending downward — 2.7 → 0.8 wins of value over the window.

Age curve▼ Behind curve
Developing slower than his age would suggest.
2026-27 forecast▲ 4.9 wins (+4.1)
Assumes a normal season; he played 23 games last year. Age should add a little at 26. Range 4.0–5.8 wins.
Production (BPM)-0.9 → -3.1-2.226-27 forecast -1.6
His on-court production has slipped.
2023-24: -0.9 · 77 games2024-25: -1.6 · 76 games2025-26: -3.1 · 23 games2026-27: -1.6 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Value to team (wins)2.7 → 0.8-1.926-27 forecast 4.9
His win contribution is trending down.
2023-24: 2.7 · 77 games2024-25: 1.6 · 76 games2025-26: 0.8 · 23 games2026-27: 4.9 (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Contract value2026-27: worth $15.7M vs $24.1M salary−$8.4M
He is paid more than his play is projected to be worth.
$24.1M salary2023-24: $5.9M · 77 games2024-25: $3.8M · 76 games2025-26: $2.5M · 23 games2026-27: $15.7M (forecast)23-2425-2626-27
Current deal: $24,137,936 cap hit · through '31. On the contract row the flat dashed line is this salary, so the gap to the 2026-27 forecast is the surplus.

Seasons from Basketball-Reference (2023-24 → 2025-26). Production is box plus-minus, a per-possession measure. Value is VORP-based wins, so it also counts games played. Contract value is what each season’s play would fetch on the open market. The dotted 2026-27 point is a forecast: his established level, a year older, assuming a normal season.

Contract

2026-27
$24,137,936Guaranteed
12% of the club’s payroll · 4th of 14 priced deals
Runs through5 seasons
Est. market value$15,692,000 /yr
Surplus−$8,445,936
ABOVE VALUEpaid above his on-court value

Market value is an estimate, not a reported figure: what his play is forecast to fetch on the open market in 2026-27 — his current rating, a year older. Cap thresholds are projected for 2026-27 until the league sets them.

2026-27 off-season

1 move

OFFICIAL means the league’s own records carry the move; AGREED means a trusted insider reported it and the league has not processed it yet. Terms and attribution come from the wire, which is the only source that carries them.

Plays like

same position

Nearest skill profiles across the seven rating axes — who he plays like, not who is as good. The rating beside each name answers that second question.